ATS researchers increase forecast, predict very active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season

Colorado State University hurricane researchers have increased their forecast and now predict a well above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2022. The odds of El Niño for this year’s hurricane season are now quite low, and the odds of La Niña conditions have increased relative to what was projected with the initial outlook in early April.

Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are now warmer than normal, while the eastern Atlantic is much warmer than normal. This type of sea surface temperature configuration is considered quite favorable for an active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

The tropical eastern and central Pacific currently has weak La Niña conditions; that is, the water temperatures there are somewhat below average. CSU researchers anticipate that these waters will likely remain slightly (e.g., cool neutral ENSO) to somewhat below normal (e.g., La Niña) for the Atlantic hurricane season. They believe that El Niño is extremely unlikely this year. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.

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