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November 30, 2021

Tropical Meteorology Project correctly predicted above-average 2021 hurricane season

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was above average – in line with forecasts issued by Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project. Twenty-one named storms formed in 2021 (the third most on record), with seven of these storms becoming hurricanes and four reaching major hurricane strength. The average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Seven named storms and two hurricanes made landfall in the continental United States, with Hurricane Ida striking the central Louisiana coast as a Category 4 hurricane. In addition to devastating winds and storm surge damage near where Ida made landfall, heavy rain from the hurricane’s remnants also brought catastrophic flooding to the mid-Atlantic states.

“The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was above average, especially when evaluated by named storm frequency. Overall, our seasonal forecasts did an excellent job of predicting an above-average season, with predictions of hurricanes, major hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy being very close to what actually occurred,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecast. Accumulated Cyclone Energy is an integrated metric accounting for intensity and duration of storms. Seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was approximately 120% of the 1991-2020 average.

The report summarizes all tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the 2021 hurricane season and compares the team’s seasonal and two-week forecasts to what occurred.

Read the full Source article, “CSU researchers correctly predicted above-average 2021 Atlantic hurricane season.”