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November 1, 2021

Russ Schumacher’s group develops heavy rainfall forecast tool used nationwide

Researchers in Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science have developed a tool for predicting heavy rainfall that is now used daily by the Weather Prediction Center, part of the National Weather Service.

By working with the Weather Prediction Center over the past several years, Associate Professor Russ Schumacher and his group were able to tailor the tool to suit forecasters’ needs.

Read the full Source article, “From research to real world: CSU atmospheric scientists develop heavy rainfall forecast tool used nationwide.”

Image at top: Example CSU-MLP forecast, for the extreme rainfall associated with the remnants of Hurricane Ida in the mid-Atlantic states in September 2021. The left panel shows the forecast probability of excessive rainfall, available on the morning of Aug. 31, over a day in advance of the event. The forecast includes a “high risk” (probability exceeding 50%) for an area from Maryland through Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York. The right panel shows the resulting observations of excessive rainfall (including flash flood reports and rainfall totals exceeding specified thresholds). The CSU-MLP correctly highlighted the corridor where widespread heavy rain and flooding would occur.