Researchers predicting above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025

Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2025 forecast. CSU’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software (TC-RAMS) Team within the Department of Atmospheric Science cites above- average subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for their prediction of nine total hurricanes this year.

When waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of above-average water temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season. A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation.

The CSU team is predicting 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Of those, researchers forecast nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson Category 3, 4 or 5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

As always, the researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions.

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said Michael Bell.

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