Tropical Meteorology Project continues to predict active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season

Colorado State University hurricane researchers are maintaining their forecast for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2021, citing the likely absence of El Niño as a primary factor. Sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are near normal, while the subtropical Atlantic is much warmer than average. This type of sea surface temperature configuration is also considered favorable for an active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season.

The tropical eastern and central Pacific currently has cool neutral ENSO conditions, that is, the water temperatures are slightly below average. CSU researchers anticipate that these waters will likely remain near average for the Atlantic hurricane season. Consequently, they believe that El Niño is extremely unlike this year. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.

While the tropical Atlantic currently has water temperatures near their long-term averages, the warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic typically forces a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions then lead to warmer waters in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

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