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June 4, 2019

CSU researchers increase forecast slightly, predict near-average 2019

Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2019 – a slight increase from their initial forecast issued in early April. They anticipate that weak El Niño conditions are likely to persist through most of the hurricane season. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.

Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures have warmed up slightly faster than normal since early April and are now near normal. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are conducive for an active hurricane season since they provide more fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification. They are also associated with a more unstable atmosphere as well as moister air, both of which enhance organized thunderstorm activity necessary for hurricane development.

Read the full Source article, “As Atlantic hurricane season begins, CSU researchers increase forecast slightly, predict near-average 2019.”